In a season of so many thrills and rollercoaster matches, the winner of the Most Unbelievable Comeback award, powered by Oracle, the Premier League’s official cloud supplier, was at all times going to be one thing particular.
And that was AFC Bournemouth’s sensational 3-2 victory over Nottingham Forest on the Metropolis Floor on 3 September.
It was Gary O’Neil’s second match in command of the staff, having taken over from Scott Parker, who had been dismissed following a document 9-0 defeat at Liverpool.
Bournemouth had claimed just one level from their opening 4 matches and went into half-time on the Metropolis Floor trailing 2-0 after targets from Cheikhou Kouyate and Brennan Johnson.
At that time, the Win Likelihood Statistic developed by Stats Carry out had Bournemouth’s possibilities of successful at solely 3.6 per cent. This likelihood is calculated each minute for each Premier League match in a season, in real-time.
The mannequin relies on 5 years of match knowledge and takes under consideration if a staff are residence or away, the present rating, penalties awarded, gamers on the pitch, crimson playing cards and time left within the match.
These probabilities fell to 2.4 per cent because the second half progressed, till Philip Billing pulled a aim again within the 51st minute.
Bournemouth’s possibilities of taking three factors again to the south coast then turned 10.2 per cent, however dipped once more as time ran down. Then Dominic Solanke drew Bournemouth stage within the 63rd minute.
Because the clock edged in the direction of 90 minutes, the possibilities of an unlikely Cherries victory dipped as soon as extra to 10.6 per cent, till an 87th-minute aim from Jaidon Anthony delivered O’Neil’s first victory in cost.
| Occasion | Match Time | NFO win % | Draw % | BOU win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kick-off (0-0) | 00:00 | 26.8 | 28.6 | 44.6 |
| NFO aim (1-0) | 32:38 | 56.7 | 27.1 | 16.2 |
| NFO aim (2-0) | 46:49 | 85.4 | 11.0 | 3.6 |
| 50:22 | 88.3 | 9.3 | 2.4 | |
| BOU aim (2-1) | 50:24 | 64.2 | 25.6 | 10.2 |
| 62:20 | 69.0 | 24.2 | 6.8 | |
| BOU aim (2-2) | 62:21 | 22.4 | 49.9 | 27.7 |
| 86:19 | 9.1 | 80.3 | 10.6 | |
| BOU aim (2-3) | 86:20 | 0.6 | 9.7 | 89.7 |
AFC Bournemouth declare the award on the idea that they got here again to win from probably the most inconceivable circumstances, utilizing the Win Likelihood Statistic.
See: How Oracle calculates the Most Unbelievable Comeback award
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