Atiku Abubakar, Nigeria’s predominant opposition social gathering’s presidential candidate, has at all times had an urge for food for giant battles.
Throughout his tenure as Nigeria’s vp between 1999 and 2007, Abubakar opposed the wave of adoption of Islamic legislation throughout components of the nation’s Muslim-majority north, the highest-profile Muslim politician from the area to take action.
He additionally backed opposition to a invoice to amend the structure and elongate the tenure of then-President Olusegun Obasanjo – a transfer that will scuttle Abubakar’s ambition to succeed his boss.
“He was seen as divisive and disruptive throughout his time as Obasanjo’s vp, continually in search of to carve a bigger position for the workplace,” Ikemesit Effiong, head of analysis at SBM Intelligence, a Lagos-based geopolitical danger advisory consultancy, informed Al Jazeera.
This month, Abubakar might be combating the most important battle of his political profession: to succeed Muhammadu Buhari, whose second four-year presidential time period ends this yr.
It’s the 76-year-old’s report sixth try to occupy the very best workplace within the land, with three of his earlier losses coming at primaries.
“We’ve by no means been this divided alongside a lot of fault traces both north, south or Muslim and Christian,” the Folks’s Democratic Get together (PDP) candidate, whose slogan is “unifier”, stated on the marketing campaign path this month. “I’m going to provide each a part of this nation a way of belonging.”
Supporters collect throughout a PDP marketing campaign rally in Abeokuta, southwest Nigeria, on January 18, 2023, forward of the presidential election [File: Pius Utomi Ekpei/AFP]
From the previous to the current
If elected on February 25, a troublesome job awaits Abubakar.
Aside from coping with Boko Haram’s 13-year armed marketing campaign within the northeast, he must deal with rising insecurity as a number of armed teams function throughout the nation, together with secessionists within the southeast and gangs of bandits elsewhere in northwest and central Nigeria.
Africa’s largest financial system can also be in a deep funk, having two recessions in 5 years, partly on account of coverage missteps and the fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic.
As many as 133 million Nigerians – the inhabitants of France and the UK mixed – dwell in poverty. The naira is now 460 to the US greenback at official charges, virtually 4 instances worse than its worth when Abubakar left workplace in 2007.
Through the Obasanjo years, Nigeria notably secured $18bn in debt reduction – half of its burden on the time – from the Paris Membership in 2005. Two-thirds of its income is at present going in the direction of repaying its debt, which might attain $172bn this yr.
Abubakar, who headed the nationwide financial council below an administration liable for Nigeria’s highest gross home product (GDP) improve since its civil battle resulted in 1970, sees himself as the proper candidate to convey again the fantastic previous many are aching for.
His expertise in public service and as a profitable businessman in agriculture, oil and schooling for many years has ready him for the tough days forward, Abubakar insists.
He has promised to put aside $10bn “to empower girls and younger males in enterprise” in addition to guarantee fiscal federalism and devolution of powers to the states. Tackling insecurity is prime of his agenda, too.
His critics, nevertheless, allege that Abubakar has at all times had an urge for food for corruption too, from his time as deputy chief of customs within the Nineteen Eighties. They are saying a privatisation train within the 2000s led to nationwide belongings ending up together with his cronies.
In 2006, the Federal Bureau of Investigation raided Abubakar’s residence in Maryland, United States for proof associated to his alleged bribing by William Jefferson, a congressman, in change for assist with contracts in Nigeria. It stays unclear if something was discovered or if cash did certainly change palms. However three years later, a US courtroom handed Jefferson a 13-year sentence over his position within the case.
This January, Abubakar addressed allegations of corruption towards him, saying he was ready to reveal his belongings if compelled by legislation to take action.
“All corrupt practices or corrupt allegations towards me have been investigated on this nation greater than anyone else and nothing was discovered towards me,” he stated in a current interview.
A remaining act
In a rustic the place politicians transfer throughout social gathering traces steadily, Abubakar, now again within the PDP, has a historical past with the opposite main contenders.
His former affiliate Bola Tinubu, who virtually ran with him on a joint ticket within the 2007 presidential election in accordance with WikiLeaks memos, might be on the poll for the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). Each males have been founding fathers of the social gathering.
Tinubu’s marketing campaign has additionally been beset by corruption allegations, an age-falsifying scandal and resurfacing of paperwork associated to his forfeiture of $460,000 to the US in a 1993 drug trafficking case. However he’s nonetheless seen because the candidate to beat.
In the meantime, a number of polls are projecting the Labour Get together’s Peter Obi, former governor of Anambra within the southeast, whom Abubakar chosen as operating mate in 2019 and who nonetheless refers to him as “my elder brother”, because the tentative winner of the election.
There’s additionally Rabiu Kwankwaso, who’s operating on the platform of the newly-formed New Nigeria Folks’s Get together (NNDP) and has emerged as a wildcard within the presidential contest. Within the Nineties, he and Abubakar have been a part of the Folks’s Democratic Motion (PDM), a political caucus.
However Abubakar, who is commonly referred to by his first identify, additionally has to cope with realigning forces in Nigeria’s political institution.
In August 2018, Obasanjo who beforehand linked his former deputy to the misappropriation of a $20m fund whereas in workplace, had famously quipped, “If I help Atiku for something, God won’t forgive me.”
Two months later, the 2 males reconciled. Obasanjo endorsed Abubakar who, nevertheless, misplaced the vote in 2019 to Buhari. This time, Obasanjo has shifted allegiance, endorsing Obi as an alternative.
Abubakar was by no means seen as “an thrilling or galvanising pressure” and infrequently got here up towards formidable, largely northern candidates, together with Buhari who isn’t on the poll this time, Effiong stated.
Analysts additionally say the previous vp has walked a tightrope for many years, making an attempt to maintain his northern base but in addition win followers elsewhere. Consequently, the comparatively extra progressive south sees him as a liberal northerner however the extra conservative north has disliked him for a similar purpose.
The state of affairs could also be altering.
Abubakar has been positioning himself because the “candidate of the north” in current rallies within the area, Idayat Hassan, director of Abuja-based suppose tank CDD, informed Al Jazeera.
“Atiku has been making an attempt to construct bridges … his marketing campaign is starting to achieve foreign money, notably in northwest Nigeria which is the area you actually must win, to win this election,” she stated.
The area is probably the most populous of Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones, accounting for nearly 1 / 4 of the nation’s 96.2 million registered voters.
The PDP has nevertheless misplaced its place because the de facto opposition social gathering in components of the south and north, because the Labour Get together and NNPP ranks swell with supporters.
Throughout the PDP, there are fissures; as an illustration, the G5 – a gaggle of governors throughout the south – have pledged to again different candidates. Their said grievance is {that a} northerner didn’t get the ticket in accordance with an unwritten rule in Nigeria; the presidency is often rotated between the predominantly Christian south and the majority-Muslim north in a nation virtually break up evenly between each religions.
Abubakar and Buhari are each Muslim from the north and members of the Fulani ethnic group.
Abubakar named one other PDP governor, Delta’s Ifeanyi Okowa, as his operating mate, a Christian, might amass votes in his state and elsewhere within the south aside from Tinubu’s stronghold – the southwest.
However some inside the political panorama and enterprise neighborhood see him because the candidate with the widest nationwide unfold of followers and a safer wager for the institution than Obi together with his radical cost-cutting proposals, the lesser-known Kwankwaso or the ailing Tinubu, 70.
“He’s the likeliest of the highest contenders to get the constitutionally required 25 p.c of votes in two-thirds of the Nigerian states whereas not successful the outright majority,” stated SBM Intelligence, in a analysis notice. “This will likely work in his favour within the very occasion of a run-off, however we don’t suppose he can take victory within the first spherical of the vote.”
Ought to a run-off occur, supporters of Obi and Kwankwaso might see Abubakar because the lesser of two evils if their candidates don’t proceed to the second spherical, analysts say.
This will likely certainly be the ultimate likelihood for him to maneuver from supporting solid to steer character however the state of affairs stays difficult.
“He’s operating on the ticket of the principle opposition social gathering in an election the place the ruling social gathering is in a traditionally weak place with a nominee who isn’t very well-liked exterior his residence area,” Effiong stated. “However for the historic rise of a reputable third-party candidate, this is able to in all probability be his election to lose.”