The upcoming Nations League clash between Italy and Germany carries weight beyond the tournament itself, as it will determine Italy’s positioning for the 2026 World Cup qualifiers.

Set to take place at Dortmund’s Signal Iduna Park, the match follows Italy’s 2-1 defeat in the first leg at San Siro. The Azzurri must win by at least one goal to force extra time and potentially penalties.

While progression to the Nations League Final Four is at stake, the match’s implications extend further. The victor will be placed in a smaller World Cup qualifying group due to their participation in the summer tournament.

Potential Qualifying Scenarios for Italy

Should Italy emerge victorious, they will find themselves in Group A alongside Northern Ireland, Luxembourg, and Slovakia. However, elimination would see them placed in Group I, facing Estonia, Israel, Moldova, and Norway, led by the formidable Erling Haaland.

The qualifying format ensures direct World Cup entry only for the top team in each group. The 12 best runners-up and four teams from the Nations League will enter play-offs in March 2026 for the remaining spots.

This match against Germany thus becomes a critical juncture in Italy’s journey towards the 2026 World Cup, influencing not just their immediate future in the Nations League but also shaping their qualification path for the global tournament.